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January delivered something unusual: the S&P 500's worst day in four months and a new all-time high, both in the same week. That contrast tells you more about the start of 2026 than any single number could.

Geopolitical tensions rattled investors. Fed policy remained uncertain. Gold was up close to 25% for the month, then dropped 10% in a single day. Yet by month's end, major indices recovered and pushed higher, driven by corporate earnings that reminded everyone what matters.

For anyone approaching retirement, market volatility, as we saw in January, shows why reacting to news often costs more than sticking to your process.

January by the numbers:

• U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 gained 1.4% and crossed 7,000 for the first time. The Dow rose 1.7%. The Nasdaq added 0.9%.
• Bonds: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up 0.1% as interest rates rose. The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.24%, its highest since September.
• International: Developed markets jumped 5.2%. Emerging markets were up even more at 8.8%.
• Inflation: Held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target.
• Volatility: The VIX spiked during geopolitical tensions before settling towards month-end.

The monthly numbers tell part of the story. What happened in January tells the rest.

What sparked the drop, and why it didn't last

January's volatility had identifiable triggers. A U.S. operation in Venezuela sparked concerns about oil prices. Diplomatic tensions over Greenland led to the S&P 500's worst day since October. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% while inflation remained sticky.

Each development felt urgent. Cable news coverage intensified, and market commentators filled airtime debating implications. The VIX (a measure of expected volatility) jumped.

For anyone approaching retirement, this kind of environment creates pressure to act. When news turns negative, the instinct is to "protect" what you've built. That instinct makes sense emotionally. But emotional investing can also lead to decisions that feel right and perform poorly.

Drops triggered by events and drops triggered by fundamentals often behave differently. When markets fall because of geopolitical news or policy uncertainty, they tend to recover as the situation clarifies. When markets fall because corporate earnings are collapsing or a recession is unfolding, the recovery historically takes longer.

January's volatility was the first kind. The triggers were real, but they didn't change the underlying health of corporate America. That distinction matters for how you respond (or don't).

Precious metals' wild ride

Gold had a wild month. It surged to a record close of $5,417 per ounce, driven by concerns about inflation, the dollar, and Federal Reserve independence. Then on January 30, it dropped nearly 10% in a single day after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.

Silver followed a similar pattern, rising above $116 per ounce before tumbling to finish the month at $85.20.

Precious metals are often described as a "safe haven." A place where investors go during times of uncertainty. The problem? "Safe haven" is a feeling, not a fact.

Gold can absolutely play a role in a diversified portfolio. Our Hybrid Risk-Aware investment process has held an allocation to gold for much of the last 3 years. But January was a reminder that it can add volatility just as easily.

Diversification means owning assets that behave differently from each other, not just assets that feel safe. Precious metals, if included, should fit into the broader philosophy of your portfolio rather than anchor it.

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Why the rebound beat the reaction

Here's the most important thing that happened in January: markets recovered faster than most people could react. The speed of that rebound reveals a math problem most investors don't consider.

The S&P 500's worst day since October came from Greenland-related diplomatic tensions. The drop was significant. But within days (not weeks or months), major indices had rebounded to new all-time highs.

By the time you process the news, feel the fear, and consider making changes, the recovery is often already underway. Selling into that fear doesn't always protect you from the drop. It can potentially lock in losses right before the rebound.

The recovery wasn't random luck. Corporate earnings provided the foundation. About a third of S&P 500 companies had reported fourth-quarter results by month's end, and 75% of them beat expectations, according to FactSet. If current trends continue, large companies are on track for 11.9% earnings growth according to consensus estimates, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Scary events created fear. Fundamentals supported the recovery.

This doesn't mean every drop will reverse quickly. Bear markets happen. Recessions happen. But volatility sparked by events often resolves faster than you can react to it. The instinct to "do something" during alarming news might mean doing exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong time.

For anyone within a few years of retirement, the stakes are higher. Planners call this sequence risk: poor returns early in retirement can permanently reduce your income. One poorly-timed decision can affect every year that follows.

You can't be certain which drops will reverse quickly. But you can recognize that many drops triggered by events do, and build that understanding into how you respond.

A framework for what's next

January won't be the last month where events create volatility. Geopolitical developments, Fed policy shifts, and unexpected news will continue generating noise throughout 2026. What January demonstrated is that noise and signal are different, and discipline gets rewarded precisely when it feels hardest.

You can't control Venezuela. You can’t control Greenland negotiations. You can’t control Fed Chair nominations. You can’t control gold prices.

But you CAN control whether you decide to react to these events. Therein lies the power.

Feeling anxious when news turns negative doesn't mean something is wrong with you or how you're interpreting the world. It means you're paying attention.

The question isn't whether you'll feel the urge to react. You will. The question is whether you've built a framework that helps you process, adapt, and adjust based on something other than your gut.

Markets and financial media will probably give us plenty of reasons to worry this year. My bet? The people who make the most progress towards their goals won't be the ones who avoid worry. They'll be the ones who don’t let the worry drive their decisions.

January was a good reminder that the hardest part of retirement planning isn't picking the right investments. It's having the framework to sit still when everything feels urgent. If that's the piece you're working on, let's talk.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication. This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any specific strategy. Investment advisory services are offered through Christensen Group Financial, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Christensen Group Inc. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All examples are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. Any references to performance, earnings, or economic forecasts are based on sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Christensen Group Financial does not provide tax or legal advice. Always consult your own tax and legal advisors regarding your unique situation.

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